To Open or Not to Open…

On this Easter Sunday we are once again bombarded with conflicting information.   President Trump says he wants to open the economy as soon as possible and the critics go wild.  New York State Governor Cuomo goes on TV to discuss the State and City of New York reopening and makes similar statements to the President and no one criticizes.   Why is that you think?  How is it ok for the President to say he wants to see the world get back to work, school and their lives and it’s a problem.  But for anyone else to say it, oh, that is all ok.  Sounds like politics.  Sounds like a double standard.   Sounds juvenile.

Blame is thrown around about when it was right to start social distancing, what did we know, when did we know it.    Which is the usual Monday morning quarterbacking that happens here in La La Land, where anyone with a press id is a master of knowing what and when to do things and the rest of us should just sit and listen.

If you think logically and clearly, re-opening everything is as Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the Trump Administration’s COVID-19 Task Force,  stated cannot be like “switching on a light switch”.    In areas hard hit or still experiencing spreading of the virus, you cannot just flip the switch and have it all return to normal.  There is also the risk of resurgence of the outbreak where we go from mitigation to containment back to mitigation.   

Translation?  That means if they open everything up too soon and too quick the surge in infection can rise putting stress on the health care system which is stretched very thin as it is.  What the experts do agree on, is the models that were outlined showed a worst-case scenario and we are not reaching that worst-case scenario at this time.  (applause)

As to the reopening? Well that is a whole different debate.   See closing it down was easy.  Shutting things and telling everyone to stay at home and don’t go out if you don’t have to.  Now, yes there were or still are many in the younger generations that do not think this applies to them.  Or they are just so cavalier with their own lives they don’t seem to care.   But the problem is they could be asymptomatic and that means they could be infected but just not show signs of the infection.   That does mean though they can infect others.  (if only they would get that)

Now to get everyone back to work and school, well you cannot just do so unless you know who has been infected and who hasn’t.   So, you won’t know that unless everyone has been tested.  That means everyone.  (yes, it shouldn’t be so difficult) Then you will have to do tracking of those infected or asymptomatic, which is why the anti-body testing is so important.  But this raises all sorts of other dangerous questions. 

It seems that so far, our efforts are working.  Those infected are recovering or passing away and it is easy to tell from the records of these two extremes.  It is everyone else that is the problem.   While we have supposedly flatted the curve as the curve is now plateauing, we have not hit the downward cycle.   But even when you get on the other side of the mountain everyone, you are not out of the woods yet as the saying goes. 

First, you may have less and less positives every day and that’s a good thing, but that was expected.  The amount of people getting infected is less because of the stay at home model and social distancing.  Now people are being told to wear masks and gloves (which should have happened much sooner) and this is going to slow it again.   

Second, you now have lots of data, no vaccine to give to every human being on the planet and multiple possible therapies.   Some work, some do not and then others just haven’t been tested.  Staying apart has stopped us from spreading the virus further, but the risk of resurgence is far too great. 

Unfortunately, while we want to get our economy moving in the right direction, it is irrelevant if we aren’t here to enjoy it.   What good is a job if you’re not here to work at it.  Further, along those lines of thinking no one has a direct line to God, even on Easter, to know what day and time is the right one to let everyone out.  So yes, even the smartest of our society, are just guessing after all…

So, since no politician wants to say what doesn’t get them re-elected; if you do not want resurgence then social distancing continues.  Stay at home continues.  Schools stay closed.   Businesses must remain closed a bit longer.  

The amount of new cases must do what everyone? Get to where there are almost none.  Why?  Because once mitigation is totally done, containment is only for the already infected. 

The alternative my fellow citizens is a massive monitoring campaign brought to you by Google and Apple that will geo-locate all sick and asymptomatic.  You will download and app on your phone and you will be tracked.  Your where abouts known.  Your every movement documented.  Why? How else can we be sure who is infected, and why.  Who did they encounter? Who needs to be isolated?

Those are your two choices.   Door number one is, let everything go back to normal quickly and risk big brother being even more in your life.   Big government will not only give you a stimulus check, but it will know what, where, how and why each moment.  

Door number two, is social distancing and everyone staying at home goes on a bit longer.   You see the politicians know this already, they just do not want to say it.   Doing things too soon would cause what? Well let’s see.  It’s called resurgence and it means a second wave.  

By way of example let’s say you do open cities.  Allow flights and cruise ships to get moving again.  This means everyone goes back to being together, after being apart.   What are the odds that more people will get infected?  The health system will be stressed again, and the death toll will rise?  Probably pretty good. 

While we hate to lay it out this way, we would think that staying at home another couple of weeks or so is a small price to pay for the overall good.   It is better than allowing government access to each and everything going on in your life in order to track your very movement.   There are certain limits to any situation, and we should not allow this to remove our civil liberties.  

Oh, and don’t forget, we are no where near the ability to get the proper testing to even discuss door number one or two.   So, it’s going to be at least another month or two ladies and gentlemen.    Sorry, but that is the just the sheer reality……. We can’t get medical workers the proper PPE to save lives, how are we going to get everyone tested so we even know who should go back out into

7 thoughts on “To Open or Not to Open…”

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