The current President, Joe Biden continues to grapple with approval ratings languishing below 50%. In response to this Biden frequently tells voters that is he is the better choice compared to his ultimate opponent. In essence, Biden suggests that while he may not be the most beloved figure, voters will still prefer him over any Republican challenger in the upcoming 2024 election.
Of course, as with most Democratic views, there is a critical flaw in this thinking. Recent poll data indicates that this assumption is missing the larger picture and could hurt Biden’s chances for re-election if his continued cognitive issues do not do that for him all by themself.
As the 2024 general election season in its early stages, the likely Republican opponent to Biden seems to be former President Donald Trump. Trump currently leads every GOP primary poll by a significant margin, despite his own unpopularity and legal headwinds thanks to his opponent’s justice department. In one latest poll, Trump’s favorability rating is equal to Biden’s. What’s is more telling, is not unlike 2016, voters who favor Trump do so by over 90 points over Biden, and vice versa for Biden supporters. This sets the stage for a showdown between the 29% of voters who, according to the poll, hold a favorable view of neither Biden nor Trump.
This scenario is reminiscent of the 2016 election when nearly 20% of voters had unfavorable views of both major-party candidates, Hillary Clinton and Trump. Trump won this group by a considerable margin, propelling him to victory.
Earlier this year, Biden held a narrow lead over Trump among voters who didn’t view either candidate favorably. However, in the latest poll, Trump has surged ahead by 7 points among this critical group. Even more concerning, 21% of them say they won’t vote or will opt for someone else in a Trump-Biden matchup. Over fifteen percent stated that they are “turned off ” by the witch hunt the Democratic Party is on against Trump.
While a 7-point margin falls within the margin of error, other recent polls echo a similar trend. Quinnipiac University and The New York Times/Siena College polls found Trump with a single-digit advantage among those who disliked both candidates, with many indicating they wouldn’t vote for either major-party nominee.
This trend sends a clear message: many people who are not fond of Biden are comparing him to the alternative, whom they also dislike, and are finding the alternative less objectionable. Furthermore, a substantial portion of them is unwilling to make a choice, signaling potential trouble for Biden’s 2024 strategy, where every vote would count.
President Biden might hope that these voters, who don’t view either him or Trump favorably, are naturally inclined to lean toward him as the election nears. However, the poll data doesn’t support this assumption. This group is fairly evenly divided between Republicans, Democrats, and pure independents, closely mirroring the overall electorate.
Even among those who express a reluctance to vote for either candidate at this stage, Democrats aren’t significantly overrepresented. In essence, there’s no current indication that this block of voters will gravitate toward Biden unless there’s a significant shift in sentiment which chances are there will not be.
As the 2024 election is still over a year away there is room for change in the political landscape, but it would have to be unprecedented. This presents a glimmer of hope for President Biden amidst a sea of concerning data, although he is stuck with a lack of approval rating and a strategy of trying to jail former President Trump, which is not translating as well as the Biden campaign would have hoped. Even the female vote for Vice President Kamala Harris is not assisting the Democratic incumbent. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Biden can bridge this gap and secure his place in the 2024 electoral arena.
RibotskyInstitute.com 
Leave a comment